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No Achhe Din !

JULY 09, 2014

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No Achhe Din !



The Economic Survey for 2013-14, presented a day before the Union Budget, does not promise any achhe din before 2016-17. It indicates a painful journey to economic recovery during which the aam aadmi amy have to take some bitter pills before getting any relief.



* GDP growth seen at 5.4-5.9% in 2014-15

* Growth rate of 7-8% can be expected after 2015-16

* Despite deceleration, services GDP growth at 6.8% was more than 4.7% overall GDP growth in 2013-14


* Poor monsoon, external factors pose significant risks to growth

* Need subsidy reforms for fiscal consolidation

* Need to raise tax-to-GDP ratio for fiscal consolidation

* CAD to be kept within 2.1% of GDP in 2014-15

* Wholesale inflation expected to cool by end-2014

* Retail inflation seems to be cooling down

* Reduce spillovers from food to non-food inflation by a formal monetary policy framework

* Plugging revenue shortfall by better mobilisation, reforms

* Move towards simpler tax regime, fewer exemptions

* Direct Tax Code as a clean, modern replacement for existing IT laws

* Better tax administration required

* Require sharp fiscal correction, new FRBM Act to have sharper teeth

* Low and stable inflation through fiscal consolidation

* Dealys in infra projects causing under achievement in the sector

* Industrial growth expected to revive gradually over 2 years

* Indian laws governing business need revamp

* Capital controls under FEMA do not support rapidly globalising economy.

* Banking sector impacted by global and domestic slowdown

* State APMC laws hurdle to modernising food economy; cartels of buyers possess market power

* Foodgrain output to improve up to 264.4 MT in 2013-14

* Plan to add 88,537 MW power capacity inr next 5 yrs

* Private cos to be allowed mine coal commercially

* Gold & silver imports dropped 40% to $ 33.4 bn in 2013-14

* Improvement in fiscal deficit and CAD to stimualte higher growth

* PFRDA Act, shift of commodity futures trading into FinMin, presentation of FSLRC report- three highlights of finnacial legislation to be taken up

* Poverty ratio declined from 37.2% in 2004-05 to 21.9% in 2011-12.


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