Global population will increase to 9.6 -12.3 billion by 2100, led by a sharp rise in Africa. This is about 2 billion higher than previous estimates, says a University of Washington and UN study published in Science. The study reveals that the world population, 7.2 billion today, will increase to 9.6 -12.3 billion in 2100, led by a steep rise in Africa.
This is the first UN population report which uses modern statistics called Bayesian statistics, that combine all available information to give better predictions. This one uses government data and expert forecasts for mortality rates, fertility rates and international migration. Most of the projected growth is expected in Africa, where the population is likely to increase four times from around 1 billion to 4 billion by 2100. The primary reason is higher fertility and a recent slowdown in the rate of fertility decline.
Asia, with 4.4 billion now, will peak at 5 billion people in 2050 and then start to decline. Populations in N America, Europe and Latin America and the Caribbean are projected below 1 billion each. Rising population could exacerbate climate change, infectious disease and poverty. The two things that decrease fertility rates are better access to contraceptives and women’s education.